POZNAŃ, Poland – August 2026. Travellers are already being encouraged to book European trips for 2027.
On July 28, easyJet put on sale almost 14 million seats across 78,000 flights for trips between June and September 2027. CIE Tours is also running its early booking special deal on certain 2027 European tours for Americans.
For hotels, that means the 2027 sales cycle is already opening more than six months before many guests will arrive.
However, according to a recent analysis from hotel technology company Profitroom, those initial figures need to be read critically. Historical booking behaviour shows why early demand shouldn’t be confused with guaranteed occupancy.
Looking at the European markets included in the analysis, cancellation rates for OTA bookings made 180 days or more before arrival varied from 28% to 47.6%. In all of these regions, direct cancellation rates were consistently lower.
Profitroom describes the effect as “phantom demand.”
“Early booking benefits both travellers and hotels. However, a reservation made nine months in advance does not carry the same level of certainty, regardless of how it was made,” said Samantha Williams, chief customer officer at Profitroom.
“As hotels are beginning to secure bookings for 2027, we can already gather some useful information from the pace of bookings, but that alone can still be slightly misleading. We need to evaluate the channel, the lead time, and the historical cancellation rate associated with the booking pace.”
Long-lead OTA cancellations reached up to 47.6% in Europe
Profitroom analysed booking behaviour at hotels using both its Booking Engine for direct reservations and Channel Manager for OTA bookings.
Its 2025 market sample included more than four million confirmed reservations. The cancellation analysis also included cancelled bookings from the same hotel sample.
Across all 7 markets analysed and all booking windows combined, the overall OTA cancellation rate was 19.3%, compared to 12.0% for direct bookings. This represents an overall increase in OTA cancellation rate of 61% compared to the direct rate.
However, the cancellation rate rises sharply when looking specifically at long-lead bookings. For bookings made at least 180 days before arrival:
- Poland: 47.6% OTA cancellation rate vs 25.7% direct
- Czechia and Slovakia: 43.4% vs 22.0%
- Nordics: 39.4% vs 11.7%
- UK: 28.0% vs 14.6%
The gap also widened as booking windows grew.
In Poland, for example, OTA cancellations rose from 33.3% for bookings made 31 to 90 days ahead to 43.6% at 91 to 180 days and 47.6% at more than 180 days. Direct cancellation rates over the same periods were 17.5%, 21.7% and 25.7%.
Some cancellations stay on the books much longer
Profitroom also identified a difference in how long cancelled bookings remained active in the system.
In Poland, the median direct cancellation occurred one day after booking; for OTA bookings, the median was 8 days.
On average, cancelled direct bookings remained active for 15 days, compared with 27 days for OTA bookings.
For hotels, that timing is significant as those reservations remain part of the hotel’s forward occupancy figures until they are cancelled.
“If a guest cancels the next day, the hotel knows very quickly where it stands,” Williams said.
“If a reservation exists and then gets cancelled after many weeks, the hotel has, during those weeks, been making assumptions on demand that did not materialise into an occupied stay, which can influence rates, availability and the level of confidence teams have when assessing forward occupancy.”
2027 booking pace needs context
The timing is relevant as more 2027 flights, tours and hotel stays go on sale.
Profitroom says hotels should use historical data to properly evaluate incoming early reservations.
Williams recommends three practical checks:
- Separate direct and OTA booking pace.
- Compare cancellation rates by lead time.
- Review how long cancelled reservations usually remain active before they disappear.
“A hotel might see 500 rooms already booked for next summer and assume demand is stronger than expected,” Williams said.
“The useful question is what sits behind those 500 rooms. How many came through OTAs? How far ahead were they booked? What happened to comparable reservations last year? That gives a much more realistic view of what next summer may actually look like.”
Williams also cautions against responding by removing flexibility from every booking.
“Guests have valid reasons to need flexible rates when they are planning months ahead,” she said.
“The goal should be better forecasting, not making every reservation non-refundable. Hotels already have the historical data to see which bookings tend to hold and which carry more cancellation risk. They should use it.”
As the 2027 European travel season starts to fill, Profitroom’s analysis points to a simple distinction: a room booked six months ahead is useful evidence of demand, but it should not automatically be treated as guaranteed occupancy.
Methodology
Profitroom’s analysis uses proprietary reservation data from hotels simultaneously using its Booking Engine for direct bookings and Channel Manager for OTA bookings.
Market-level booking and cancellation data covers reservations made between January 1 and December 31, 2025, serving as a historical benchmark for long-lead booking trends. The study covers Poland, the United Kingdom, Africa, Czechia and Slovakia, the Nordics, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.
Cancellation rates were calculated separately for direct and OTA channels using confirmed and cancelled reservations. Aggregated figures are booking-weighted rather than hotel-weighted.
About Profitroom
Profitroom provides integrated hospitality technology designed to help hotels increase direct revenue and strengthen guest relationships. Its platform connects hotel websites, booking technology, CRM, marketing automation, packages, loyalty and distribution within one ecosystem.
Founded in 2008, Profitroom supports more than 4,500 hotels and resorts worldwide and operates across more than 55 countries.
